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Friday, June 26, 2009

Cockburn writes

Piattelli-Palmarini describes a number of experiments involving risks and rewards. The interesting thing is that even when the outcomes are mathematically identical, the results are different depending on how the situation is presented.

Illusions of Choice

Piattelli-Palmarini cites a dual experiment. In the first, people are given $300 and then have to choose between a guaranteed $100 more or a 50/50 chance at $200 more.

People prefer to take the guaranteed $100.

In the second, people are given $500 and then have to choose between having $100 taken away from them or a 50/50 chance of having $200 taken away from them.

People prefer to risk having $200 taken from them.

(Piattelli-Palmarini, p. 58)

Mathematically, all outcomes are equal. What is interesting is the difference in the outcomes depending on how the problem is stated.

Piattelli-Palmarini sums up the aspect relevant to project managers: We are risk-averse when we might gain.


and then later

This characteristic, "preferring to fail conservatively rather than to risk succeeding differently," gets coupled with people's fear of rejection and the difficulty they have in building new work habits. The three together explain (to me) why managers continue to use the long-abused one-pass waterfall development process. Based on this line of thinking, I expect that people will continue to use the waterfall process even in the presence of mounting evidence against it and increasing evidence supporting incremental and iterative development. Use of the waterfall process is anchored in a failure mode.



Our group has been trying to practice XP for over a year now. I like it, but I think it is going to be a long hard journey to get some people to try this.

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